Ukraine to lose $5 billion in exports due to shutdown of metallurgical plants
An additional $1.5 billion will be needed for the import of steel products to replace local supplies. Following a series of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises, the steel industry has come to a halt without understanding the prospects for resuming operations. If the security situation in Ukraine does not improve, there is a high probability that metallurgical enterprises may not return to production, GMK Center writes.
This means that steel production volumes in Ukraine in 2026 will be close to the levels of 8 months of 2026 – 4.3 million tons or a decrease of 39%. In 2027, Ukraine risks not producing a single ton of steel.
Accordingly, due to the loss of domestic consumption and marine export opportunities, the production of iron ore products will decrease by 37% in 2026 and by a further 55% in 2027. GMK Center expects that from September 2026, mining and ore enterprises, with satisfactory security conditions, will only operate based on export volumes to European countries – about 1 million tons per month. This will entail high risks of stopping part of the capacities at active enterprises and no prospects for launching enterprises idling.
Due to the loss of production opportunities for pig iron and steel, revenue from the export of metallurgical products will decrease by $2.5 billion in 2026 and by another $2.5 billion in 2027 – a total of $5 billion. In addition, the need for the import of steel products to replace lost local supplies, which, according to GMK Center estimates, may reach $1.5 billion in 2027, relative to the level of 2025, should also be taken into account.
Thus, the overall negative impact of the shutdown of metallurgical enterprises on the trade balance will amount to $6.5 billion in 2027, compared to 2025.
The prolonged shutdown of metallurgical enterprises raises questions about the possibility of their relaunch. Without domestic metallurgy, the implementation of infrastructure recovery programs after the war will be at risk.
Criminal proceedings, searches, arrests of accounts, equipment, and land have become a reality for the Ukrainian agribusiness, which should be prepared for in advance. How to verify counterparties, whether it is necessary to respond to law enforcement requests, what to do with seized grain, and how to behave during a search can be found in the material: Searches and arrests in agribusiness.
Теги: criminal proceedings, GMK Center, infrastructure recovery, iron ore exports, metallurgical shutdown, security conditions, steel import needs, steel production, trade balance impact, Ukrainian agribusiness
